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Raise your hand if you actually trust any of this data though. I know my hand isn't up.

It's very complicated to define and measure something as nebulous, nuanced, and politically charged as unemployment in a precise, meaningful, objective, and cost-effective way (amongst other vital characteristics).

In the USA, we're measuring and defining unemployment with methodologies that are essentially the lowest common denominator. That these numbers also obscure and obfuscate the reality of the situation is part of the design. To further complicate the issue, a lot of policies are being made essentially to game those simplified metrics -- perverse incentives.

These numbers may very well be extremely precise and highly accurate and still it doesn't mean that they are reflective of what Americans are experiencing as a whole or on an individual basis. And yet, policy makers are (or appear to be) focusing on these singularly to make them look better and keep up appearances.

My situation and experience are completely anecdotal, of course, but from my vantage point, it looks like there's an uncontrolled downward economic spiral being swept under the rug. Folks who can work and want to work (or at least wouldn't mind it) are sitting outside the system, idle. Employers are reducing their workforce and then placing added burden on those that remain to make up the difference. Those folks are burning out, taking leave, quitting, retiring early, etc. Employers aren't replacing them, just slathering the work onto fewer and fewer plates. So, if the government isn't doing anything meaningful about it (and in fact making it worse) and employers aren't doing anything meaningful about it (besides taking advantage), it'll be interesting to see how this is resolved. "It'll work itself out in a few years" is not a reasonable stance, whether it's true or not.

Unemployment numbers that aren't as bad as everyone expected are missing the point, and certainly not a cause to rally and celebrate, in my opinion.

Only ones that belive most of this anymore are the ones that don't go out and interact with the public or dont read/watch much outside of their entertainment echo chamber, which is still a lot of people but they aren't thinking much outside of the headlines. The labor market is shit right now for anyone that's actually looking for work. From my experience on this lots of employers are interviewing, yes there are multiple rounds in the most basic jobs lately, to then get offered wages so low it's better to go in the gig market and cater to the wealthy.

I wish I was joking but when this was ongoing last year I did over 50 interviews with dozens of companies hr departments, not recruiters, to be offered wages lower than what indeed and glassdoor data showed others were being paid pre 2024. I did sales so seeing base salaries so low and commission rates lowered compared to before it's was an early sign these companies are either low on cash from lack of spending or a greater push towards outsourcing labor oversees like my last 2 employers before that did since they can pay $2 an hour to have someone make cold calls all day in Vietnam and have the older folks in the company take the leads and keep the commissions to afford their bloated lifestyles post covid.

The same is for the Neverending growth of the publicly traded companies that are forced to keep finding ways to spend less so they have higher payouts/dividends for the same folks in that older generation with bloated lifestyles. Sadly that "best" way to lower spending is to lay off workers and then next year a couple more then a couple more as AI (really offshoring) takes them all like the manufacturing jobs.