Europe

Russia's economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin's war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.

In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.' More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.

Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.

The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin's government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:

It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.

So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don't know of a single study that says the same about Russia.

while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster

Russias economy is held up only on war efforts and even that is starting to shake. Every other business is struggling to get workforce and a lot of the supply chains are lost due to sanctions. It doesn't really matter if they win or lose, economically they'll be in a very difficult situation when the war ends.

if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster

Their economy is and will be a disaster no matter how the war ends. They've spent everything and then some. Their reserves are gone, their currency became worthless, they lost a million+ of skilled workers, and Europe has all but stopped buying their resources. They're completely fucked. The way things look now, there will be another perestroika.

It really is becoming time for Europe to step up and turn the screws on Russia by declaring a no-fly zone and start bombing the everliving shit out of any Russian troops in Ukraine.

What do you think the Russians would do if NATO countries start bombing their troops in Ukraine?

China does not have the problem of a massive war killing a lot of people and creating a massive refugee wave. Ukraine is down to 36million people from 42million in 2022. That is like China loosing 200million people over three years. The natural decline to 600million is the UN estimate for the end of the decade so an annual decline of about 10million.

The only country with somewhat similar issues is Russia, but they do not have as big of a refugee crisis.

I feel like China is probably better equiped to make necessary changes to deal with decreasing population better than most other countries.