this post was submitted on 20 May 2025
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Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.

For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.

Projections estimate that Russia's population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia's population could almost halve to 83 million.

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[–] brucethemoose@lemmy.world 109 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (20 children)

…Wow.

So what’s the tankie angle to this? From that perspective, the war is objectively awful for Russia, even if all the stated war goals are true.

[–] neidu3@sh.itjust.works 79 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The beloved and benevolent putin is merely protecting the country from the overpopulation seen in the west.

[–] warm@kbin.earth 28 points 2 days ago (3 children)

There's no overpopulation in the west. Fertility rates are too low to maintain the current population.

[–] CmdrShepard42@lemm.ee 76 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Well, they didn't say the angle had to be factual.

[–] warm@kbin.earth 14 points 2 days ago

You got that right!

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[–] resipsaloquitur@lemm.ee 57 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

The tankie angle is that it’s NATO’s fault. Would never have happened if mean old west hadn’t invaded Ukraine and genocided Russian-speakers who are ethnically and linguistically identical to Ukrainians but also totally different and superior but also must be defended by daddy Vladdy.

And also Ukraine is an inseparable part of Russia, especially Crimea. Khrushchev was only kidding when he gave Crimea to Ukraine, which isn’t a real country.

And the west totally broke its verbal promise that no one’s ever heard to never allow another country into NATO. But The Budapest Memorandum wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. For some reason.

You just don’t understand Russian history. Russia has a very long memory. When it comes to grievances. Theirs.

You’re just russophobic.

[–] SkyezOpen@lemmy.world 15 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I don't think I've ever gotten one of them to even acknowledge the Budapest memorandum.

Though I do like to point out that they're the biggest western chauvinists ever if they genuinely think NATO somehow forced putin into emptying Russia's soviet stocks of vehicles and ammo in the most disastrous invasion in recent history.

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[–] NOT_RICK@lemmy.world 45 points 2 days ago

So what’s the tankie angle to this?

“Sure this news is bad, but what about this non sequitur?”

[–] Brunbrun6766@lemmy.world 22 points 2 days ago (2 children)

"see! Putin is pro environment! Less people is better!"

[–] Diplomjodler3@lemmy.world 17 points 2 days ago

Ah, the Genghis Khan defence. Bold move!

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[–] flandish@lemmy.world 10 points 2 days ago

war is always bad for the working class. nothing new here.

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[–] Randomgal@lemmy.ca 78 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Kinda rough to have babies if most of your men are being turned into fertilizer.

[–] PalmTreeIsBestTree@lemmy.world 25 points 2 days ago

Russian meat to sunflower oil pipeline

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[–] BlackSheep@lemmy.ca 70 points 2 days ago (4 children)

Seriously. If you are a woman, do you want to bring a child into this world?? Our climate is a disaster, and anyone who “could” do anything about it is doing everything they can to accumulate wealth at the expense of the planet. Fascism and misinformation is rampant. Geezus, people are telling Mothers that inoculations are bad. Think about that… polio vaccines that rescued generations of children from “iron lungs”, leg braces, and death. Those vaccines were developed from science. SCIENCE I’m an old lady now. If I was young and of child bearing years—I would not have children.

[–] Zealousideal_Fox_900@lemmy.dbzer0.com 23 points 2 days ago (14 children)

As a dude, I wouldn't want to bring a kid into this shithole of a world either. Most of my generation doesn't, and I can see why.

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[–] Zenith@lemm.ee 16 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I’m a woman, with two kids, they’re not my biological children. I never wanted to have kids but other people are having kids and I figure why not love the kids already here? There’s plenty of kids to go around there’s no need for me to personally make a kid. If the kids are already here we should do as much as we can to make their lives good but if they’re not already here it should stay that way.

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[–] TheFonz@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago

I promise you, the last thing on the minds of Russian women in this moment is climate change

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

yeah! that's what I am thinking too, have been for years now. but at the same time babies are booming in the area (not russia, but east eu) so obviously a lot of people think differently.

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[–] BlackSheep@lemmy.ca 53 points 2 days ago (4 children)

It’s global. Who the fuck wants to procreate in a world that’s about run out of water??

[–] FlembleFabber@sh.itjust.works 12 points 2 days ago (19 children)

Could you elaborate on running out of water?

[–] Merva@sh.itjust.works 16 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Some parts of the globe is going to run out of water, some areas of the globe are about to get way too much of it. You know, climate change and all that.

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[–] Cocopanda@futurology.today 34 points 2 days ago (5 children)

People who think Russia will last. Have no idea how bad drug abuse is in that country.

[–] Ledericas@lemm.ee 21 points 2 days ago (1 children)

alcoholism is actually thier favorite pass time.

[–] Cocopanda@futurology.today 12 points 2 days ago (1 children)

They’re so poor. They don’t even do heroin. They do crocodile.

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[–] ExtremeDullard@lemmy.sdf.org 32 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

It's the Russian resistance's long game: in 10 years, there won't be enough young people left to send to die at the front, so the war will naturally peter out.

[–] Nomad@infosec.pub 15 points 2 days ago
[–] mrodri89@lemmy.zip 32 points 1 day ago (1 children)

My vaginas baking equipment would shrivel up too if Putin was my leader. Much like it's reaction to Americans leadership.

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[–] drhodl@lemmy.world 31 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Even russian women don't like russians.

[–] Bravo@eviltoast.org 11 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I think the implication is actually that there's a marked dropoff of eligible young Russian men. To preserve a generation, Russia might soon need to use more North Koreans on the Ukrainian front, but that comes with its own problems and risks.

It's weird that Putin's avoiding peace negotiations, as he more than anyone needs to find a way to scale back the war effort before his hold on power begins to waver. I get that he needs to save face while doing so, but he's not gonna get conditions more favorable than a Trump administration, so the clock is ticking.

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[–] KiESi@lemm.ee 31 points 1 day ago

Looks like death rates are up though.

[–] CatGPT@lemmy.dbzer0.com 23 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

No one wants to live in putins world

Shit i mean meow

[–] psycho_driver@lemmy.world 21 points 2 days ago

No one wants their children to grow up in a corrupt Oligarchy.

[–] DarrinBrunner@lemmy.world 16 points 2 days ago (4 children)

If AI and robots will take over so many jobs, why is a declining birthrate a bad thing, in the long term?

[–] GenosseFlosse@feddit.org 19 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Because current society is built on the assumption that around 4 workers will support 1 person with social benefits like retirement money, healtcare or unemployment benefits. Robots are already used in many factories but don't pay any of those. The robots will produce goods cheaper than humans, however corporations will own the robots, and still charge you the same price for the goods while receiving a larger margin.

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[–] conditional_soup@lemm.ee 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (7 children)

That's not unique to Russia. Birth rates in developed nations have been plummeting across the board. The only reason the US was escaping it and hanging out around replacement was because of immigration, and, well, I don't know if you've been keeping up with the news lately, but it seems like that's going to change.

There's lots of reasons driving demographic collapse, but I don't think war is one of them. South Korea is usually heralded as the shining example of demographic collapse because their birth rate is the worst by far, and it generally seems to be the case that as economies becomes more "advanced", women have less time and supports to focus on motherhood, and so just choose not to have kids. I put advanced in scare quotes because it seems to me that a truly advanced economy wouldn't footgun itself with rapid demographic collapse. Not to say that the trend shouldn't be towards a smaller population that will tax the Earth's resources less, but the way to get there safely for civilization isn't by falling off a cliff.

[–] brot@feddit.org 26 points 1 day ago

Other countries also have the problems with the birth rates, but Putin is accelerating that. Murdering and crippling his young men in a senseless war. Keeping millions of men in the army away from home, far away from their girlfriends. Pushing people to leave the country, if they can. The problem might be there without Putin, but the war is making it so much worse

[–] frezik@midwest.social 21 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Russia has a unique problem, and it is war. Just not the war in Ukraine by itself.

WWII was absolutely devastating to the Soviet Union's population. Tons of "excess females", which means there were so many men killed that women could not find a husband. The baby boom did not happen there; kinda the opposite. This affects both modern Russia and Ukraine.

Every 20 years or so, there is an "echo" of that loss in their population pyramid. It's a drop in ~~birth rates~~ new births from a relative lack of young adults starting families for part of the cycle. The echo reduces with each cycle, of course, but one of them is hitting right now. Putin is now amplifying that echo by having another war with such high losses.

Edit: clarified some wording.

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[–] rammer@sopuli.xyz 12 points 2 days ago (9 children)

Population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades

Which means that it already is that low. If you don't count the parts of Ukraine that Russia thinks it owns and the hundreds of thousands of young people who fled the country earlier in the war.

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[–] iAvicenna@lemmy.world 11 points 2 days ago

yea putin, fuck the world up and then complain that people are not making kids. we will all die in our own filth when the infrastructure collapses and you can wipe your ass with all that money and power

[–] Litebit@lemmy.world 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

If they classify it, it means it's a lot worse. Ukraine should send more steriliser over to russia.

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[–] gradual@lemmings.world 9 points 2 days ago

Interesting. I never really considered how we could use birth rates to extrapolate how many people may have died in war.

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