https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_governing_recall
Let me preface this by saying I'm not a lawyer and am more interested in discussion on this topic than specifically championing it.
Recall elections are supported (at some level) in 39 states. Of those, only 12 require some subjective grounds for removal; usually malfeasance, corruption, incompetence, etc...
Given the current state of the country, you could reasonably petition for the recall of any official supporting/enabling the dismantling of the constitution by the federal government.
Before anyone points it out: yes, the laws on the books generally apply to state and local offices. I'd view anything that roots out MAGAs or DINOs as a win. These are the people that run your federal elections and order local police to support ICE abductions.
However, it's also not clear if these state laws would extend to recalling members of congress. The general sentiment is they would not because no recall mechanism exists in the constitution. Still, that specific issue has never been brought to court.
The closest we've come is U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton. The result was a 5-4 ruling that states cannot impose restrictions on the election of prospective members of congress. This isn't the exact same as a for-cause recall of a member of congress, but it isn't encouraging precedent.
But let's examine a few key things:
- Our current SCOTUS doesn't give a flying fuck about precedent
- Trump is becoming combative with the judiciary. Allowing federal recalls is an insulated way to erode the administration's support without directly overruling any authority.
- Our very own Clarence Thomas' dissent in the above case!
Nothing in the Constitution deprives the people of each State of the power to prescribe eligibility requirements for the candidates who seek to represent them in Congress. The Constitution is simply silent on this question. And where the Constitution is silent, it raises no bar to action by the States or the people.
With those facts and that phrasing, I could certainly see a scenario where the recall of (at least) a few US congress members could happen. Of course the specific state laws vary and the political positioning needed to make it happen is beyond my current understanding.
Could it work?
I think it's largely that people in general:
The Overton Window has shifted so far to the right that to a lot of people this situation isn't unusual. Combine that with the fact that when people are bombarded with crises they tend to grow numb to it and you get a situation where most people don't really care, because to care would be overwhelmingly stressful, and you get the shit show we're currently in.
Also, at the expense of being a bit nit-picky, it's spelled "precedent" not "precident." It's a ruling that precedes another ruling.
I agree with the apathy and lack of concern, but I think empty shelves from Trump's tariffs would bring out voters. In many places a recall petition only needs 25-30% of the previous election's vote count. I think at least triggering these elections is pretty achievable even if it doesn't amount to much.
Thanks for catching that typo, if I was a lawyer my autocorrect would know better ๐