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That surprises me to be honest, i think in theory you might be right on them being able to double their budget if the trade would continue as usual with 25% tariff. But still I can't imagine there being a secret plot trying to get this done. What would they even use the money for? I think there are corrupt individuals looking to fill their own pockets, but I don't see how the ruling parties in the EU would benefit from increasing the budget with some backroom agreement.
I was curious as to who gets the money from import duties and it is indeed (mainly) the EU itself. Also surprised to learn already almost one sixth of the budget comes from tariffs. So wanting to up the tariffs would definitely be a short term gain. Do you have a (conspiracy) theorie as to what the eu would do with their extended / independent budget?
I can't imagine that the EU would actually try to finance itself with tariffs. Free trade is what allows for specialization and thus greater prosperity for everybody.
The usage would be that the EU becomes independend from its states. Now the states have some leverage to at least deny further funding if the EU reduces their power.
The countries in the EU have a much bigger day in the dealings of the EU than the states of the US have in the US. The budget wouldn't be their main restriction, because on every issue also the member states have a vote. They would need a majority and in some cases a qualifying majority to back them up if they had the desire to have a looser leash.