this post was submitted on 27 Mar 2025
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Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.

In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.

“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.

[...]

Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.

With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.

“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.

[...]

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[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 2 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (1 children)

Exactly, as I said. Germany has no nuclear weapons. British nukes are mounted on rockets leased from the US and can therefore not be relied on. France’s arsenal is tiny and it’s not clear to what’s left of the NATO alliance that they would risk Paris for a village in Latvia.

[–] Lumiluz@slrpnk.net -1 points 4 days ago

France's arsenal is enough to wipe out most of Russia's population, since most of Russia is villages and nature, with most of it concentrated in the western side