this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2025
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I don't think there's going to be any movement on this until the two tariff related cases clear the US supreme court.
The F-35 deal is a major bargaining chip in our negotiations with the US, and those negotiations aren't going to go anywhere until we know what we're negotiating against. If the supreme court strikes down Trump's ability to tariff under the IEEPA, that absolutely destroys his leverage. We know that his own party have already voted against his tariff agenda multiple times, so the only way he can do this is by going around Congress. If he loses that option, he's suddenly playing with a completely empty hand, while we still hold all the same cards we did from the start.
I suspect that's why this "Review" is taking so long. The government is going to want to have it say whatever backs up their position with the US, and right now they don't yet know what that position will ultimately be. What we do know is that Saab's eagerness to make a deal gives us more leverage because we can very credibly threaten Lockheed (who basically own the US government) with walking away. After all, 10,000 jobs and total ownership of the production pipeline is pretty tempting.
In that instance, Trump is likely to either find another loophole (whether valid or not) to exploit for the next 10 months until the court can try and stop him again, or ignore the ruling completely.