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I was thinking about this - with this level of gerymandering, is it not thr the case that there is an inflection point at which just a small change in votes can cause a large number of seats to flip?
Not really. For that to happen, all the districts need to be just barely won, assuming they don't change.
It they do change, then yes. The more you pack the other side and spread yourself out, you're amplifying your strength. At the same time, you're probably not working to strengthen the number of your voters, so you're shedding them. Which means you're loosing your foothold.
It's like with evolution. If you consistently evolve in a certain way, you'll lose your ability to fly.