this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2025
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That historian is actually citing Japanese sources, which is more accurate than what the US leaders may have thought to be the case.
Hirohito actually used both the bombs as well as the Soviet invasion as justification to surrender. The civilian population was told it was due to the destructive power of the atomic bomb, the military were told they could not hold out against the Soviets.
It's not unlikely that not dropping the bombs would have led to a Japanese surrender, but it would likely have delayed it by some time. The bombs contributed greatly to the emergency meetings of the Japanese war cabinet in which ultimately the emperor decided to surrender. But it was a multitude of factors; the emperor was for example also unconvinced that the defense of southern Japan would be ready in time for the invasion, as earlier timelines hadn't been met. But he also said he did not want Japan and its innocent civilians destroyed due to further atomic bombs.