politics

So I've tried it a couple times now, with varying degrees of success, but I want to write a paper which takes a lifecycle approach to excess deaths by industry. My goal was to come up with a deaths/ billion estimate, to figure out a quantity of wealth after which we could decide, the person holding that wealth has effectively committed murder; then we buffer it by 10x to account for the fuzziness of the math, and we set that as the global maximum wealth cap.

Its practically impossible to believe that any industry results in 0 deaths per billion. However, when I did the first couple intial forrays into the research, its very dificult to pin down exaclty which is the source industry for a given death (for example, fossil fuels contribute massively to peoples deaths. But so does tobacco. Electric vehicles dont have tail pipe emissions, but might use fossil fuels in their construction, etc.. etc..)

Here is some summary output from that.

To compare the estimated premature deaths per billion dollars of profit between tech companies and a fossil fuel extraction company, we'll examine ExxonMobil as a representative example.

ExxonMobil's Annual Profit:

In 2024, ExxonMobil reported a net income of $33.7 billion.
investor.exxonmobil.com

Estimating Premature Deaths Due to Fossil Fuel Emissions:

A study by Vohra et al. (2021) estimated that fossil fuel combustion-related fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) pollution was responsible for approximately 10.2 million premature deaths globally in 2012.
investor.exxonmobil.com

Calculating Premature Deaths per Billion Dollars of Profit:

To estimate the number of premature deaths attributable to ExxonMobil's operations per billion dollars of profit, we can use the following approach:

    Global Fossil Fuel CO₂ Emissions: Approximately 35 billion metric tons annually.

    ExxonMobil's Contribution: ExxonMobil's operations contribute to a portion of these emissions. While exact figures vary, estimates suggest that ExxonMobil's products account for about 1.3 billion metric tons of CO₂ emissions annually, representing approximately 3.7% of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions.

    Attributable Premature Deaths: Applying this percentage to the global premature deaths:
    10,200,000 deaths×0.037≈377,400 deaths
    10,200,000deaths×0.037≈377,400deaths

    Deaths per Billion Dollars of Profit:
    377,400 deaths33.7 billion USD≈11,200 deaths per billion USD
    33.7billion USD377,400deaths​≈11,200deaths per billion USD

Comparison with Tech Companies:

Previously, we estimated the number of premature deaths per billion dollars of profit for tech companies, assuming their energy consumption was entirely sourced from fossil fuels:

    Samsung: Approximately 1,004 deaths per billion USD

    Google (Alphabet): Approximately 153 deaths per billion USD

    Microsoft: Approximately 209 deaths per billion USD

Conclusion:

If we attribute a proportional share of global premature deaths from fossil fuel emissions to ExxonMobil based on its contribution to global CO₂ emissions, the company is associated with approximately 11,200 premature deaths per billion dollars of profit. This figure is significantly higher than the estimates for tech companies, reflecting the direct role of fossil fuel extraction and production in contributing to air pollution and associated health impacts.