Europe

• 76% of Ukrainians firmly reject a hypothetical peace deal on Russian terms, with only 17% willing to consider such a compromise, according to data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), published on August 7.

• Support for a joint Ukraine-EU peace initiative has increased slightly, with 54% of respondents backing the plan, up from 51% in May. Only 30% found this option completely unacceptable, down from 35% earlier this year.

• 39% of Ukrainians are viewing a US-driven peace plan as potentially acceptable, a notable increase from 29% in May. However, 49% still say the American proposal is entirely unacceptable, though this marks a drop from 62% in May.

The KIIS writes:

As part of a regular survey (especially a telephone one), we cannot discuss the plans in detail with the respondents in full, because each plan includes many components. Therefore, we have prepared three shortened versions with, in our opinion, particularly important (from the point of view of public perception) elements. We are aware that the shortened versions cannot claim to be a complete reproduction of the proposed plans, but we believe that in our research version we have covered the important components and were able (as will be shown below) to clarify the differences in perception.

The three plans are:

Conditional plan of the USA:

• A group of European states, but without the USA, give Ukraine security guarantees
• Russia retains control over occupied territories
• USA officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia
• Ukraine moves towards EU accession
• USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

Conditional plan of Europe and Ukraine:

• Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the USA
• Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this
• Ukraine moves towards EU accession
• After establishing a lasting peace, the USA gradually eases its sanctions against Russia

Russia's conditional plan:

• Ukraine must significantly reduce its army and limit its armaments
• Ukraine permanently renounces NATO membership
• The cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the entire territory of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts come under Russian control
• Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia and renounces them permanently
• Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
• The USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia

Meanwhile in the US, a Harvard-Harris poll (open pdf) conducted July 6-8 found that a growing number of U.S. citizens want the United States to ramp up support for Ukraine.

• Nearly three in four voters believe America’s relationship with Ukraine is more important than its ties to Russia, a figure that has grown since June. In addition, the poll found that Russia is among the top 3 most unfavourable institutions in the US, with 65% of those polled choosing “unfavourable” or “very unfavourable.”

• According to the poll, about 75% of U.S. voters believe Putin is deliberately manipulating the West. In contrast, 60% say Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy genuinely wants to end the war.

• Trump’s supporters in the U.S. are more likely to view Zelenskyy’s intentions with skepticism, but even among Republicans, a significant portion backs continued US assistance to Ukraine.