this post was submitted on 04 Aug 2025
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11% of 2% is nice but not "fucking crazy"
That month on month Linux expansion is ~422,000 computers. That is a shitload of people switching in just a single month.
OSes are sticky as hell. People don't like switching. As Linux attracts these people away from Microsoft, MS is not going to get them back. And importantly, the adoption rate is high enough that many 3rd party companies are taking notice and releasing for both.
Every time they buy a new device they have to switch back to linux, because that device with very few exceptions ships with MS.
Interesting, my devices always come without OS. And on preconfigured Windows for family first thing I do is wipe it to get rid of all the bloatware it comes with.
I see your point, but installing your usual linux distro on a new device is quite easier than switching to linux for the first time, which is what people don't wanna do.
I've seen it first hand recently with a friend who sought advice regarding a low budget laptop purchase for school work and multimedia use. While he was open minded about what hardware to choose, there was no convincing him to ditch Windows. I told him he'd be better off using a lightweight linux distro on such modest hardware, but he insisted on Windows 11 based on questionable arguments ("I need office"), even knowing it'd be slow, bloated, full of ads and AI features no one care for. Old habits do die hard.
People buying Steam decks are likely the majority of those numbers. They probably ALSO have a Windows machine
The Steam Deck shows up as Arch Linux in the steam numbers; Arch is only 10.7% of the Linux user-base on Steam. And this is on top of the fact desktop Arch Linux is a thing as well sharing space in that line-item.
The Steam Deck (and Microsoft tomfoolery) certainly was the catalyst for the current wave of adoption, but it is barely a notable percentage of Linux installs on Steam.
collapsed inline media
0.3% of 130 million is still a fuckton of people. If even PewDiePie is going to Linux, that means desktop Linux has hit a point it certainly hasn't ever before
Until they want to play a multiplayer game with their friends, that doesn't work because of Anti-Cheat. Or maybe Linux is a bit more involved than they initially realized.
Most of those that switched probably won't go back, but I think with Linux it's going to be more than someone might think (however it'll still grow, especially over the coming months with Windows 10 support ending).
It's my understanding that anti-cheat CAN work in Linux and does with some games. The point is still valid of course. If a specific game someone wants to play doesn't work, that's going to be a frustrating experience. But still I foresee the percentage of Linux gamers will continue to grow. And gaming companies increasingly making sure to use anti-cheat software that does work with Linux, as that market share is becoming too large to ignore.
Almost all multiplayer games work fine. It's 9noy the garbage that companies like EA put out that choose not to. Just think of it like being a console exclusive, and you don't own that console. Ignore it. Their games aren't worth playing anyway. It's the same garbage as the last 10+ years.
What do you mean OSes are sticky as hell? I’m currently on Arch, but only because of the AUR. I’m thinking of switching to gentoo because people keep putting malicious packages on the AUR so I might as well do gentoo
What are your feelings on switching to a different OS, such as MacOS?
These are both the same OS: Linux. And one of the nice things is Linux lets you switch around so much at-will as you are thinking of doing.
I can’t see OS X becoming a daily driver for me, but I don’t mind using it on occasion (it has bash!). Just have to turn off gestures
422k out of 132 million
This is WHY percentages are a thing. Because, on the surface, yeah, that is a very large number. When you look at it relative to the denominator? It is 0.3%. What is the percentage of people who bought Clair Obsura or even just some good old fashioned feet porn?
Bragging about what is basically a rounding error relative to Windows is the same "it has been the summer of Linux for the past 20 years" that mostly just leads people to write off Linux in general.
Also, what "many 3rd party companies" are you talking about? Mostly what I have noticed is an increase in "We tested on the Steam Deck" or "we won't block Proton". Whereas EA are still actively blocking Proton in the BF6 beta?
It's all relative. When you bring the time aspect into this, it is a sharp increase compared to previous time periods.
And it's subjectively a small number of computers and a large number of computers at the same time, depending on perspective.
There's no point in arguing over these stats.
When I switched to Mint about 6 months ago, most of my programs existed on both. And my games just worked. That wasn't the case just a few years ago.
I can't imagine wanting to give EA root access to your entire system, full access to everything you do on your computer...just to play a game. I'm honestly surprised Microsoft still allows such on their platform, it's a massive vulnerability to users, as CrowdStrike demonstrated.
Good on you. Plenty of people have many problems because a lot of industry standard tools (e.g. fusion 360 for CAD) don't exist on Linux and actively break under Wine/Proton
And great (and same). But most of that is just not actively breaking Proton. Which is the Wine team plus Valve.
As for BF6: the point is that one of THE biggest third party publishers out there has spent the past year or so actively blocking Proton in almost all of their games. And for their new flagship title that they want to be the biggest game ever (ha!), they are already actively blocking Proton again.
Which goes against the "many 3rd party companies are taking notice and releasing for both". Which was already not even a thing since the vast majority of those aren't doing linux binaries (tried that 10 and 20 and 30 years ago...) and are just not actively breaking Proton.
Do you not understand that "many" has a different meaning than "all"? Being able to point to one company that is actively blocking Proton doesn't prove a single thing.
Said company being one of the biggest in gaming. Hoyoverse also tend to be varying levels of sketchy towards Proton (I think the current "meta" is to run the android version of Genshin Impact in an emulator?)
Also, you still haven't really identified what major 3rd parties are considering Linux a first class citizen versus just not actively blocking Proton and MAYBE testing against one specific SKU (Steam Deck).
You can use Fusion 360 in Linux with Wine. But instead of even trying that, I used my switch to Linux as the catalyst to switch to FreeCAD. Using FOSS just feels so much nicer.
At that rate we reach 100% Linux users in 34 months. (50% in 27)
I'd call that quite significant.
... what rate are you talking about?
I am going to assume the other person's numbers were right but it honestly doesn't matter
422k people per month? That is 0.3% per month.
2.89 + (0.3*34) = 13.09. 13% after almost 3 years. Which... that honestly still seems high but I could almost see it if SteamOS gets enough coverage by the various influencers and runs on every handheld form factor gaming PC that isn't MS or Sony branded. And if the next attempt at Steam Machines actually gains traction and they take over a chunk of the console space ahead of the PS6.Or are you talking about compound interest? Which... I think even Activision and EA would call you crazy for assuming. Also I am not sure if the math actually holds for that either but I can never remember the simple math to represent that.
Also it is completely unrelated but I'll just add: I personally don't consider SteamOS gaining a significant market share to be "linux" any more than I do Android or consider Mac to be "BSD". Yes, they have common ancestry (and varying levels of shared kernel and libraries) but it rapidly starts creating walled garden issues as developers prioritize one distro over the other to an obscene degree. And... I think we can all agree after the past few weeks that GabeN can indeed do wrong when it is in his/Valve's financial interest to do so.
It's Linux because for devs it's a Linux platform.
And yeah 11% growth month to month compounds quickly. It won't hold forever but all things like that are sigmoidal Wich does start as an exponential growth.
Sure, but even using that absurd growth rate continuously it would still take an ADDITIONAL 18 months from what you originally said to hit 50%
log_1.11 (50/2.89) = 27.32
log_1.11 (100/2.89) = 33.96