Greentext

To compare dead children to the cost of failing to check government power, we can reduce both to life-years lost:

🔫 Current Cost: Child Firearm Deaths in the U.S.

• ~2,000 preventable child gun deaths/year
• ~60 life-years lost per death
• 120,000 life-years lost annually
• Over 30 years: ~3.6 million life-years lost

🏛️ Hypothetical Benefit: Preventing Tyranny

Assume a worst-case scenario:

• Authoritarian collapse kills 10 million (based on 20th-century examples)
• Avg. age at death: ~40 → ~35 life-years lost
• 10M deaths × 35 = 350 million life-years lost

Estimate risk:

• Without civilian arms: 0.5% chance over 30 years
• With civilian arms: 0.4% chance
• These figures are speculative; there’s no empirical support that civilian gun ownership reduces the risk of tyranny—many stable democracies have strict gun control.

In fact, high civilian armament may reduce stability:

• Greater availability of weapons increases the lethality of civil unrest, crime, and domestic terrorism.
• Armed polarization can accelerate breakdown during political crises, as seen in failed or fragile states.
• States may respond with harsher repression, escalating rather than deterring authoritarian outcomes.

📊 Expected Value Calculation

• Without arms: 0.005 × 350M = 1.75 million life-years at risk
• With arms: 0.004 × 350M = 1.2 million life-years at risk
• Net benefit of arms: ~550,000 life-years saved (generous estimate)

📉 Conclusion

Even with favorable assumptions:

• Civilian firearms cost ~3.6M life-years (due to preventable child deaths)
• And prevent only ~550K life-years (via marginally lower tyranny risk)

Bottom line: The ongoing cost vastly outweighs the hypothetical benefit, and high armament may worsen long-term stability rather than protect it.