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I can’t see a significant percentage of Trump’s MAGA supporters abandoning him in favor of Musk. But I can see Musk being a divisive figure among the non-MAGA Republicans, with some refusing to work with him while others are happy to take his money.
You only need ~5% of Republicans to not vote or hate Trump enough to say maybe unknown candidate will be better and vote for them.
Can he get 1 in 20 Republicans to think Trump and co are bad? Not sure, but when your enemies want to fight each other, let them
There is growing complaints in MAGA about Trump. They didn't want wars and they don't like the Big Beautiful Bill. MTG of all people has taken those stances.