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I respectfully disagree.
The only chance for a 'just' and lasting peace in Ukraine and Europe is a a complete defeat of Putin's Russia. Everything else doesn't end the war but will extend it.
Russia must leave the whole of Ukraine.
I think you're both right as your stated opinions views are not diametrically opposed. I suspect the original commenter was not commenting to an utopian dream of a just peace, here. Their comment seems to be addressing realpolitik. The super power in the region and the current hegemonic super power in the world are aligned.. and so is the new world super power, China when it comes to it. With that background, both Europe and Ukraine will loose and will have to accept what's given to them.
This is correct, as I am looking at the situation right now, I don't see a realistic way for Ukraine to kick out Russia from their land completely, unless something big happens, I believe we are looking forward to a negotiated peace.
As a Swede, who gladly supports all aid packages with supplies, weapons and materiel we send, I wan't nothing more than for Ukraine to kick Russia to the curb, but I don't see that happening.
I'd rather prepare for a bad negotiated peace, if ever so short, and be surprised by Ukraine succeeding, than the opposite.
I disagree that the EU will have to face reality on this. The EU is definitely strong enough to support Ukraine on its own and kick Russia out; the problem is the lack of political will and, frankly, spine. I mean the fact that there are still new sanctions coming says everything that needs to be said.
Do you honestly think the EU can stand alone against the super powers? With what? A lot of European munitions come from one of them. Sure, maybe the EU could throw all it's chips in to the war effort and may squeak out a victory but they would have to dedicate around 80% of their income to it. We're talking taking a World War 3 stance of preparedness. And be willing to go bankrupt in the process. If that happens the only result is Russia comes in an sells the EU for parts.
Uh... The (combined) second largest economy in the world? The only reason the EU isn't considered a superpower is the chicken shit neoliberals running it; do you seriously think Russia and their "special military operation" can take the full weight of France? Germany? Italy? Really the only thing EU countries are missing is the military production to sustain more aid for Ukraine, which is not exactly a hard problem. You're talking about Russia like it's the Soviet Union, but it's just not.
I'm not just factoring in Russia, here. If it was just Russia here you'd have a point. Russia has allies. The Trump Whitehouse and it seems that China is soft on Russia too. If push comes to shove, I really can't guarantee that either of them would fall in line behind the EU. Add to that the authoritarian Narendra Modi's India I really don't think the EU would stand a chance...
Although, on the flip side, the EU may have allies themselves in Australia and Canada, and perhaps the UK plus the Scandinavian countries. But, even then...
I guess it also comes down to how much the different factions want the fight.
I fully agree, but we are talking about two different things.
I said that currently I don't see an end to the war that doesn't include Ukraine having to give up land.
That is all that I said, I actually forgot to add what I wrote in a comment a few days back, where I said that any agreement where Ukraine looses land is bound to lead to a new conflict relatively shortly thereafter.
My earlier comment specifically called out that Ukraine loosing land is unfair.
I truly wish that Ukraine can muster the strength to kick Russia out baldy enough that Russia learn their lesson.
I am a Swede and I smile every time we give more aid, weapons and other related materiels to Ukraine, I gladly pay my taxes for this.
At the same time, if I try to look realistically at the conflict, at this point in time I don't see Ukraine kicking Russia out, it looks more and more as the end of the current conflict will come in the form of a negotiated peace, if only for a relatively short time.