That was my take.

Before the Krafton acquisition, Unknown Worlds Entertainment has produced Natural Selection 2 (the first was a Half Life mod, not sure it counts), which sold 300,000 copies, Subanutica sold "over five million" at a $30 price point, and I can't find any sales numbers for Below Zero, but for back of the napkin math let's say it sold about as well as Subnautica at ~5 million copies, again at $30.

So both Subnautica and Below Zero grossed $150 million. Subtract the 30% that Steam takes, and you're left with $100 million, so $200 million between those two games would have been the net take.

Meanwhile, Moonbreaker happened, and I have no sales figures for that.

Everybody talks about what a massive hit Subnautica is, and while it is a successful game, Stardew Valley sold 40 million copies. Subnautica 2 stood a good chance of being a solid commercial success with tons of 2 hour Youtube video essays about how it compares to the original. It was never going to make $750 million. Even if it outsold Subnautica and Below Zero combined at double the price. Add in merch, Peeper plushies, T-shirts, ball caps, they were talking about a movie...Subnautica 2 was going to make a good chunk of that but wasn't going to make it all.

As far as I can tell, they never intended to pay that $250 million bonus, it was probably offered in bad faith as incentive to sell the studio, and when it looked like they were actually going to pull off the conditions Krafton broke the contract in order to break the contract.

If I get my way, Krafton will never do business in the United States again, and since I'm a vengeful asshole that likes doing brain surgery with a backhoe, I'd probably ban Samsung, Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Sony, Nintendo and Honda, and half of those aren't even Korean.